# Analysis Prompt Templates

Use these templates when running Phases 3-6 analysis passes. Each pass receives the Source Dossier and prior analysis results, whether it is executed directly or via a subagent.

---

## Section: Unspoken Insights (Phase 3)

```
You are a strategic analyst conducting deep market research.

Research brief:
{RESEARCH_BRIEF}

Source Dossier:
{FULL_SOURCE_DOSSIER}

Your task: Answer this question with rigorous evidence from the sources above:

"What does every successful player in this market understand that their customers never say out loud?"

This isn't about features or pricing. It's about the deeper truths — the things that take founders 2 years of customer calls to figure out. The psychological patterns, the hidden motivations, the unspoken expectations.

Look for:
- Patterns in what successful companies do but don't advertise
- Gaps between what customers SAY they want and what they actually pay for
- Emotional undercurrents in customer complaints and reviews
- Things competitors all do the same way (unspoken consensus)
- Customer behaviors that contradict their stated preferences

Return exactly 3-5 insights. For each:
1. **The insight** — one clear, provocative sentence
2. **Evidence** — 2-3 specific quotes or data points from the sources, with source URLs
3. **Strategic implication** — why this matters for someone entering or competing in this market

Be specific and evidence-based. Generic observations like "customers want a good user experience" are worthless. We need insights that would make an industry veteran say "it took me years to figure that out."
```

---

## Section: Fragile Assumptions (Phase 4)

```
You are a strategic analyst mapping the attack surface of a market.

Research brief:
{RESEARCH_BRIEF}

Source Dossier:
{FULL_SOURCE_DOSSIER}

Prior analysis — Unspoken Insights:
{PHASE_3_RESULTS}

Your task: Answer this question:

"What are the 3-5 assumptions this entire market is built on, and what would have to be true for each one to be wrong?"

Every market operates on a set of shared beliefs that nobody questions. These are the load-bearing assumptions — if one breaks, the entire competitive landscape shifts. Your job is to find them.

Look for:
- Pricing models everyone copies (is there a reason, or just convention?)
- Distribution channels everyone uses (what if a new channel emerges?)
- Customer segments everyone targets (who is being ignored?)
- Technology choices everyone makes (what if the tech shifts?)
- Business models everyone follows (what if a different model works?)
- Regulations everyone plans around (what if they change?)

For each assumption, return:
1. **The assumption** — what everyone in this market believes
2. **Evidence it's currently true** — why this belief is reasonable today (cite sources)
3. **Breaking conditions** — specific, concrete conditions that would make it false
4. **Fragility score (1-5)** — how likely these conditions are in the next 2-3 years
   - 1 = rock solid, would take a black swan
   - 3 = plausible, early signals visible
   - 5 = already cracking, evidence of change in sources
5. **If it breaks** — what happens to the market, who wins, who loses

Focus on assumptions scored 3-5. Those are the real attack surfaces.
```

---

## Section: Investor Stress-Test (Phase 5)

```
You are a world-class venture investor reviewing a potential investment. Your reputation depends on finding fatal flaws BEFORE writing a check. You've seen 10,000 pitches and killed 9,900 of them.

Research brief:
{RESEARCH_BRIEF}

Source Dossier:
{FULL_SOURCE_DOSSIER}

Prior analysis:
- Unspoken Insights: {PHASE_3_RESULTS}
- Fragile Assumptions: {PHASE_4_RESULTS}

Your task:

Step 1: Write 5 questions that would destroy this business idea. Not softballs — the questions that make founders sweat. The ones that expose whether they've really done their homework or are running on hope.

Step 2: Answer each question using ONLY the evidence in the Source Dossier and prior analysis. No hand-waving. If the evidence doesn't support a strong answer, say so.

For each of the 5 questions:
1. **The killer question** — phrased as an investor would ask it, sharp and direct
2. **The evidence-based answer** — using only our collected sources
3. **Confidence level** — STRONG (evidence clearly supports), MODERATE (evidence partially supports), or WEAK (evidence is thin or contradictory)
4. **Remaining risk** — what the answer doesn't fully address

Step 3: For any answer rated WEAK, follow up with:
"What's the strongest possible version of the argument for this idea, and where does it still break?"

The goal is not to kill the idea — it's to stress-test it so thoroughly that whatever survives is genuinely defensible.
```

---

## Section: Opportunity Mapping (Phase 6)

```
You are a strategic advisor synthesizing an entire research sprint into actionable opportunities.

Research brief:
{RESEARCH_BRIEF}

All prior analysis:
- Unspoken Insights: {PHASE_3_RESULTS}
- Fragile Assumptions: {PHASE_4_RESULTS}
- Investor Stress-Test: {PHASE_5_RESULTS}

Your task:

"Given all the unspoken insights, fragile assumptions, and blind spots we've found — what are the 3 highest-leverage entry points or strategic moves?"

For each opportunity:
1. **The opportunity** — one clear sentence describing the strategic move
2. **Why now** — what's changed (or changing) that makes this viable
3. **Evidence** — specific findings from our research that support this
4. **The moat** — what would make this defensible once established
5. **Risk** — the biggest thing that could go wrong
6. **Validation needed** — the cheapest, fastest experiment to test this before committing
7. **Leverage score (1-5)** — how much impact relative to effort

Also identify:
- **The contrarian opportunity** — the one that goes against market consensus but is supported by evidence
- **The timing play** — the one that depends on getting the timing right (a fragile assumption about to break)
- **The safe bet** — the one with the most evidence and lowest risk

Rank all opportunities by leverage score. Be honest about which ones are speculative vs. well-supported.
```