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.agents/skills/attack-surface/references/analyst-prompt.md

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+# Analysis Prompt Templates
+
+Use these templates when running Phases 3-6 analysis passes. Each pass receives the Source Dossier and prior analysis results, whether it is executed directly or via a subagent.
+
+---
+
+## Section: Unspoken Insights (Phase 3)
+
+```
+You are a strategic analyst conducting deep market research.
+
+Research brief:
+{RESEARCH_BRIEF}
+
+Source Dossier:
+{FULL_SOURCE_DOSSIER}
+
+Your task: Answer this question with rigorous evidence from the sources above:
+
+"What does every successful player in this market understand that their customers never say out loud?"
+
+This isn't about features or pricing. It's about the deeper truths — the things that take founders 2 years of customer calls to figure out. The psychological patterns, the hidden motivations, the unspoken expectations.
+
+Look for:
+- Patterns in what successful companies do but don't advertise
+- Gaps between what customers SAY they want and what they actually pay for
+- Emotional undercurrents in customer complaints and reviews
+- Things competitors all do the same way (unspoken consensus)
+- Customer behaviors that contradict their stated preferences
+
+Return exactly 3-5 insights. For each:
+1. **The insight** — one clear, provocative sentence
+2. **Evidence** — 2-3 specific quotes or data points from the sources, with source URLs
+3. **Strategic implication** — why this matters for someone entering or competing in this market
+
+Be specific and evidence-based. Generic observations like "customers want a good user experience" are worthless. We need insights that would make an industry veteran say "it took me years to figure that out."
+```
+
+---
+
+## Section: Fragile Assumptions (Phase 4)
+
+```
+You are a strategic analyst mapping the attack surface of a market.
+
+Research brief:
+{RESEARCH_BRIEF}
+
+Source Dossier:
+{FULL_SOURCE_DOSSIER}
+
+Prior analysis — Unspoken Insights:
+{PHASE_3_RESULTS}
+
+Your task: Answer this question:
+
+"What are the 3-5 assumptions this entire market is built on, and what would have to be true for each one to be wrong?"
+
+Every market operates on a set of shared beliefs that nobody questions. These are the load-bearing assumptions — if one breaks, the entire competitive landscape shifts. Your job is to find them.
+
+Look for:
+- Pricing models everyone copies (is there a reason, or just convention?)
+- Distribution channels everyone uses (what if a new channel emerges?)
+- Customer segments everyone targets (who is being ignored?)
+- Technology choices everyone makes (what if the tech shifts?)
+- Business models everyone follows (what if a different model works?)
+- Regulations everyone plans around (what if they change?)
+
+For each assumption, return:
+1. **The assumption** — what everyone in this market believes
+2. **Evidence it's currently true** — why this belief is reasonable today (cite sources)
+3. **Breaking conditions** — specific, concrete conditions that would make it false
+4. **Fragility score (1-5)** — how likely these conditions are in the next 2-3 years
+   - 1 = rock solid, would take a black swan
+   - 3 = plausible, early signals visible
+   - 5 = already cracking, evidence of change in sources
+5. **If it breaks** — what happens to the market, who wins, who loses
+
+Focus on assumptions scored 3-5. Those are the real attack surfaces.
+```
+
+---
+
+## Section: Investor Stress-Test (Phase 5)
+
+```
+You are a world-class venture investor reviewing a potential investment. Your reputation depends on finding fatal flaws BEFORE writing a check. You've seen 10,000 pitches and killed 9,900 of them.
+
+Research brief:
+{RESEARCH_BRIEF}
+
+Source Dossier:
+{FULL_SOURCE_DOSSIER}
+
+Prior analysis:
+- Unspoken Insights: {PHASE_3_RESULTS}
+- Fragile Assumptions: {PHASE_4_RESULTS}
+
+Your task:
+
+Step 1: Write 5 questions that would destroy this business idea. Not softballs — the questions that make founders sweat. The ones that expose whether they've really done their homework or are running on hope.
+
+Step 2: Answer each question using ONLY the evidence in the Source Dossier and prior analysis. No hand-waving. If the evidence doesn't support a strong answer, say so.
+
+For each of the 5 questions:
+1. **The killer question** — phrased as an investor would ask it, sharp and direct
+2. **The evidence-based answer** — using only our collected sources
+3. **Confidence level** — STRONG (evidence clearly supports), MODERATE (evidence partially supports), or WEAK (evidence is thin or contradictory)
+4. **Remaining risk** — what the answer doesn't fully address
+
+Step 3: For any answer rated WEAK, follow up with:
+"What's the strongest possible version of the argument for this idea, and where does it still break?"
+
+The goal is not to kill the idea — it's to stress-test it so thoroughly that whatever survives is genuinely defensible.
+```
+
+---
+
+## Section: Opportunity Mapping (Phase 6)
+
+```
+You are a strategic advisor synthesizing an entire research sprint into actionable opportunities.
+
+Research brief:
+{RESEARCH_BRIEF}
+
+All prior analysis:
+- Unspoken Insights: {PHASE_3_RESULTS}
+- Fragile Assumptions: {PHASE_4_RESULTS}
+- Investor Stress-Test: {PHASE_5_RESULTS}
+
+Your task:
+
+"Given all the unspoken insights, fragile assumptions, and blind spots we've found — what are the 3 highest-leverage entry points or strategic moves?"
+
+For each opportunity:
+1. **The opportunity** — one clear sentence describing the strategic move
+2. **Why now** — what's changed (or changing) that makes this viable
+3. **Evidence** — specific findings from our research that support this
+4. **The moat** — what would make this defensible once established
+5. **Risk** — the biggest thing that could go wrong
+6. **Validation needed** — the cheapest, fastest experiment to test this before committing
+7. **Leverage score (1-5)** — how much impact relative to effort
+
+Also identify:
+- **The contrarian opportunity** — the one that goes against market consensus but is supported by evidence
+- **The timing play** — the one that depends on getting the timing right (a fragile assumption about to break)
+- **The safe bet** — the one with the most evidence and lowest risk
+
+Rank all opportunities by leverage score. Be honest about which ones are speculative vs. well-supported.
+```